The Year of the Opposition

Jan 9

A year ago, we highlighted how 2024 would be the ultimate election year, with polls conducted in more than 60 countries representing about half of the world’s population. Now, it’s time to reflect on how those elections unfolded and to assess the global landscape today.

Put simply, this year can be defined by a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment, as voters across the globe expressed their desire for change.

To better understand this trend, we analysed over 70 presidential and legislative elections that took place around the world in 2024. In most elections conducted under reasonably democratic conditions (33 of 47), the ruling party either lost power outright or suffered significant losses in parliament, forcing it to rely on coalitions to govern.

Figure 1: Overview of 2024 Presidential and Parliamentarian Elections’ Results (72 countries)

To explain this dynamic, we identified five key patterns that provide leaders across the board with an opportunity to reflect on their efficiency and legitimacy.

Voters typically don’t differentiate between issues that their leaders can influence and those they cannot. Many incumbents paid the price for their inability to curb the negative impact of the looming global economic crisis.
There is a growing willingness to prioritise leadership that delivers results, with ethics in the balance. While incumbents were sanctioned for high-profile scandals, runner-ups with known unethical behaviours were rewarded for their can-do attitude.
The trust in political elites continues to erode. Elections are increasingly seen less as opportunities to choose the person with the best ideas and more as referendums on the current administration, prompting voters to turn to outsiders.
This year witnessed the rise of increasingly assertive and strategically coordinated opposition movements. From innovative alliances to stronger electoral monitoring, opposition parties showed they could effectively channel public discontent into tangible electoral gains.
The rise of social media and online news has shortened attention spans, leading many to prefer concise, easily digestible content. This shift has benefited far-right parties, whose messaging is often simpler, emotional, and direct.

One year later, we are left with a world that is more right-leaning but also more defiant of election processes. Theoretically, elections should provide clarity on a country’s political, economic, and social orientation for the years to come. At odds with this principle, 2024 highlights a critical challenge for leaders: building and maintaining trust in an age of impatience.

Through this analysis, Tusker Club explored the possible reasons behind the widespread discontent expressed in elections worldwide. While no single factor provides a definitive explanation, several theories offer valuable insights into the underlying causes.

1. Anger fuelled by economic challenges

It is no secret that the global economy has faced significant challenges over the past two years, leaving people and businesses grappling to recover from the pandemic. High food and energy prices have driven up the cost of living for millions, and governments continue to struggle with depleted budgets.

While some of these economic difficulties stem from external factors, such as COVID-related supply disruptions and the war in Ukraine, voters typically don’t differentiate between issues that their leaders can influence and those they cannot. This frustration has fuelled widespread discontent with the status quo and allowed opposition parties worldwide to argue successfully that those in power have mishandled the economy.

In Ghana, former president John Mahama, the main opposition leader, achieved a major political comeback after two failed attempts by capitalising on economic discontent. The economy had become a central election issue following Ghana’s default on its debt and its USD 3 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund.
In India, PM Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to win a majority for the first time since its 2014 electoral victory, securing only 240 seats and becoming reliant on coalition partners. Economic issues, including wealth inequality and job scarcity, played a pivotal role in this shift, as the electorate prioritised economic concerns over the traditional divisive rhetoric.
In Panama, widespread economic dissatisfaction led by the closure of a large copper mine, reduced canal revenues due to drought, and poor tax collection also prompted voters to oust the ruling party in the May elections. Conservative José Raúl Mulino emerged victorious, promising increased investment in infrastructure, the construction of a new university, and the building of a train line.

Leadership question: How clear are you about the criteria on which you are being judged as a leader?

2. Public expectations of leadership delivery

In 2024, there was a growing willingness to prioritise leadership that delivers results, manifested by a rising tide of public intolerance toward corruption and the abuse of power.

In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC), which has held power since the first democratic elections in 1994, lost its parliamentary majority for the first time and was forced into a coalition government. While economic inequality played a significant role in this outcome, it was the party’s deep-rooted ties to corruption, mismanagement, and state capture that ultimately eroded public trust. The ANC’s reputation has been marred by numerous corruption cases that it has allowed to persist without holding perpetrators accountable, leading to increased voter dissatisfaction.
In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had governed nearly uninterruptedly since 1955, faced a significant setback. PM Shigeru Ishiba retained power, but the LDP’s unexpected electoral loss marked the end of its dominant rule. This shift underscored voters’ anger at the LDP’s extensive financial scandals, considered the most severe in decades, including the underreporting and concealment of income from fundraising events.
In Hungary, PM Viktor Orbán’s right-wing Fidesz party experienced a significant loss, dropping 11% compared to the 2022 general election. Although it still secured the most votes, this marked its most significant drawback in 18 years. Public discontent continues to rise, partly due to scandals like the controversial child abuse pardon by Orban’s ally, to the point that polls now suggest Orbán’s supremacy may no longer be certain.

Leadership question: To what extent can achieving results justify behaviours that push ethical or professional boundaries?

3. Eroding trust in political elites

There’s an overall sense of frustration with political elites, who are viewed as disconnected, out of touch or not worthy of trust. Instead, voters are turning to outsiders, often with no prior political power. The US election set a benchmark highlighting an accelerating phenomenon. According to the Edelman Trust Barometer Special Analysis on Trust and Government, trust in government was relatively high among voters leading up to the 2020 election. However, by 2024, trust levels had significantly declined, most notably among Republicans, paving the way for Trump’s re-election.

As such, elections are increasingly seen less as opportunities to choose the person with the best ideas and more as referendums on the current administration. Voters are signalling discontent with the status quo, often prioritising a rejection of the incumbent over the merits of the alternatives.

In Britain, the election delivered a historic defeat for the Conservatives, marking their worst result since 1832 and ending 14 years of power. Yet, despite Keir Starmer’s landslide victory, the combined vote share of the two major parties barely surpassed 60 percent. Smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats and Greens gained ground, while the far-right Reform UK party entered Parliament for the first time with five seats. This underscored a deeper crisis of broken trust, fuelled by poor public services, unaffordable bills, and a desire for change.
In Portugal, the centre-right Democratic Alliance, led by Luís Montenegro of the Social Democratic Party, secured a narrow victory in the country’s closest parliamentary election on record. The Democratic Alliance opted to form a minority government that excluded Chega, the far-right insurgent party. However, Chega’s dramatic rise, quadrupling its parliamentary seats to become the third-largest party, poses a significant challenge to the long-standing two-party dominance of the Socialists and Social Democrats.
This rise has also created challenges in governance. In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) achieved its best legislative election result since World War II, narrowly beating the ruling Austrian People’s Party though falling short of a majority to form the government. After months of negotiations and attempts to exclude the FPÖ from coalition talks, Herbert Kickl is now in a position to become Austria’s chancellor, marking the country’s first far-right leader since World War II.

Leadership question: How extensively are stakeholders involved in the decision-making process?

4. Clever opposition strategies

This year witnessed the rise of increasingly assertive and strategically coordinated opposition movements, demonstrating that challengers across the political spectrum have learned critical lessons from past failures. From innovative alliances to stronger electoral monitoring, opposition parties showed they could effectively channel public discontent into tangible electoral gains, even in environments where the odds were stacked against them, including highly repressive systems.

In Botswana, three opposition parties and several independent candidates united under the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), transforming fractured dissent into a formidable coalition. By presenting a cohesive alternative, the UDC decisively ousted the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had governed since independence in 1966. Now relegated to one of the smallest factions in parliament, the BDP faces a steep climb to regain its political relevance.
In Venezuela, opposition forces adopted sophisticated electoral strategies to challenge President Nicolás Maduro’s deeply entrenched regime. They meticulously monitored the voting process and obtained over 80% of voting tallies, which provided a detailed breakdown of polling station results and demonstrated their candidate’s victory. As a result, while the government-aligned National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner, the move has drawn international condemnation, and many governments have since recognised the opposition as the legitimate victor.
Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian achieved a historic victory in Iran despite systemic barriers favouring candidates aligned with the influential Council of Guardians. Competing against three hardliners, Pezeshkian distinguished himself by advocating for economic reform, engagement with the West, and greater social inclusivity. While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei retains the ultimate authority, Pezeshkian's victory, combined with declining voter turnout in recent elections, signals the regime’s waning legitimacy and a growing appetite for change among the electorate.

Leadership question: How do you stay in tune with your stakeholders’ expectations?

5. Limited attention capacity

The rise of social media and online news has shortened attention spans, leading many to prefer concise, easily digestible content. This shift has significantly benefited more extreme political ideologies, whose messaging is often simpler, emotional, and direct. Their strategies emphasise “us vs. them” narratives, fostering a sense of urgency and appealing to emotions like fear, patriotism, and anger.

In contrast, centrist and more moderate parties typically rely on more nuanced messaging, addressing complex issues with detailed policy explanations that have struggled to compete in today’s fast-paced information environment.

This dynamic was evident in the US election, where Donald Trump not only regained the presidency but also helped the Republicans secure majorities in both the House and Senate. Trump’s campaign leaned heavily on a stark and memorable narrative, repeatedly describing the United States as an “occupied country” overrun by migrants and promising to “rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered.” In contrast, the Democrats struggled with a lacklustre campaign, with President Biden’s late decision to remain in the race leaving little time to develop a cohesive message for the electorate, including on the challenging issue of immigration.
The far right’s ability to leverage social media has been particularly evident in Europe, where it has made significant inroads with younger voters. In the European elections, the National Rally emerged as the most popular party among French voters under 34, capturing 32 percent of the youth vote, compared to just 5 percent for President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party. A key figure in this success is Jordan Bardella, the National Rally’s 29-year-old president and Marine Le Pen’s presumed successor, who has become a social media phenomenon with over 2 million TikTok followers.

However, experts caution against assuming ideological alignment among young far-right supporters. Many of these voters are disillusioned and feel excluded from traditional political processes. This detachment leaves them more receptive to the far-right’s messaging, which resonates by addressing their sense of alienation and unmet demands for a just and inclusive society.

Leadership question: What is the one thing you most want to be known for?

The road ahead: challenged democratic processes

One year later, the world looks quite different from where we started. In Africa and Asia, long-standing leaders—some in power for decades—were either ousted or saw significant challenges to their authority for the first time, generally benefiting the centre-left.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the surprising surge in support for far-right parties across several elections, including in Portugal, the United Kingdom, France, and Austria, has shifted the political landscape and challenged traditional party structures.

Figure 2: Overview of the Evolution of Leaders’ Political Tendencies in 2024 (72 countries scoped)

Political leaning might not be the issue here. The virtue of elections is to provide clarity for the years to come. Whether you agree with the outcome or not, elections should offer a clear direction on economic, social, and political decisions. Unfortunately, this principle of democratic institutions seems less certain today. Debates persist long after elections, which no longer appear to serve as decisive milestones in the decision-making process. And that might be the elephant in the room.

Conclusion

Voters today are increasingly quick to pass judgment, a trend amplified by social media’s immediacy. While holding governments to account is a cornerstone of democracy, this swift and often unforgiving scrutiny can undermine thoughtful governance and discourage thorough policymaking.

For leaders, the message is clear: there’s no room for complacency. Even newly elected officials are discovering that the honeymoon period following their victories is alarmingly short. British PM Keir Starmer is a prime example. His approval ratings are plummeting as a weary and sceptical electorate demands lower prices and better public services, doubting whether any politician can deliver the meaningful change they seek.

This rapid disillusionment highlights a critical challenge for leaders: building and maintaining trust in an age of impatience. To succeed, they must balance swift action with long-term solutions, demonstrating both competence and commitment to the promises that brought them to power.

The real question now is whether they will succeed or whether the trend now known as “the graveyard of incumbents” will continue into 2025.

Cristina Rue, January 8, 2025.

Political Dialogue

Baptiste Raymond