Making Sense of Polling
In the whirlwind of headlines, 2024 is poised to set the record for the biggest election year in history, granting over half of humanity the chance to cast their votes across more than 70 elections worldwide.
With seven of the world’s 10 most populous nations and a third of Africa heading to the polls, the countries involved differ greatly. From India’s lower house and the European Parliament to the US presidency and the South African Congress, the upcoming year promises to be jam-packed.
Experts have raised fears about threats to democracy, with candidates facing bans from running for office in countries from Senegal to Venezuela. Others worry that disinformation and an increasingly polarised environment could further destabilise political processes.
Amid these uncertainties, one undeniable certainty is that this year is bound to be a bustling period for pollsters.
Candidates will likely develop a slight obsession, eagerly awaiting the latest data and scrutinising the famous horse race results—namely, the “If the election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?” query. As experienced campaigners will attest, navigating this fixation and balancing the quest for real-time information with strategic decision-making can prove to be one of the most challenging aspects of the process.
Over the last decade, polling has suffered from a tarnished reputation. Projections for the UK 2015 election were widely off the mark, and many of us may never forget the 2016 polls that inaccurately predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Since then, polling methodologies have shifted, including new efforts to reach the previously hard-to-reach audiences. In the US, pollsters are now combining phone interviews with web-based approaches like text and email.
While polling continues to be the most reliable way to understand what the public wants and who is popular at the ballot box, polls should not be treated as a magic 8 ball. It’s up to the reader to decide what merits attention and what to dismiss, as well as to grasp the insights we can learn from them. To do so, politicians and leaders across the board need to put in perspective the polling technique and the message it intends to convey.
The polling technique: “It’s the question, not the answer”.
Understanding polling design is essential to appreciate its results.
Consider the source behind the poll. If it’s commissioned by a political candidate or a media outlet, be mindful of potential hidden agendas. This doesn’t diminish the poll’s value outright but underscores the importance of interpreting the results with a grain of salt.
Familiarise yourself with the details of the poll. If you are uncertain about the source’s credibility, prioritise polls that exhibit transparency. Most reputable pollsters will gladly disclose the basics of a poll, like who paid for it, the methodology used, or what questions were asked. If that’s not clear, it might not be worth your time.
Check the date of the poll. If it was conducted right after a major event, the results might be slightly swayed. Additionally, if it was conducted in just one day, some of the tougher-to-reach voters might not have been able to participate.
Take note of the margin of error. Don’t be fooled by a poll showing a candidate leading the other by just 1 or 2 points. Experts argue that there is no clear leader if the gap between the candidates is less than the poll’s margin of error.
The intent beyond the poll: “Separate people from the problem”.
The horse-race question—determining who is predicted to win—constitutes just one facet of the insights a poll can offer.
Identify what people care about. In general, polls may fail at picking a winner, but they excel at helping people understand what issues matter and why. Those who read beyond headlines and approach the breadth of freely available information in polls with a certain degree of scepticism, can identify the challenges that segments of society foresee for the future.
Treat it as a concern, not a priority. Insights from polls can help leaders shape a message and build a relationship with their audience by acknowledging their concerns. However, streamlining your approach to tailor messages based on poll results may soothe your audience in the short term but hinder trust in the long run.
Engage rather than react. Polls are not designed to address the web of interests and underlying positions of the public at a given moment, but they tell you where to probe. Leaders should respond to their audience’s concerns but recognise that what the public seeks is not just an answer but a platform for meaningful discussion.
Let someone else care about it. The media scrutiny makes it very difficult to apply all these suggestions. Those who follow polls in your teams (or market surveys, for that matter) shouldn’t be responsible for the core of your platform, at the risk of falling prey to a confirmation bias. Delegating the analysis of polls to a “red team” and challenging your strategic priorities might be more effective, although it requires leaders to accept contraction amidst high-stakes, fast-paced circumstances.
When to dismiss voters or market input and when to adjust your course to address its concerns can be a balancing act for many leaders. Polls don’t tell leaders what to do but give them an opportunity to explain why what they are doing is valuable in context.
As we watch 2024 elections unfold, we encourage leaders to delve beyond the surface of polls and leverage the data to their benefit. They may not be that magic 8 ball, but polls can provide valuable insights for enhanced decision-making and strategic planning, especially for the leaders who see it as an opportunity to engage with dissenting voices.
Cristina Rue - 01/24.